Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chester FC win with a probability of 48.32%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 25.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chester FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.34%) and 2-1 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.48%), while for an Alfreton Town win it was 0-1 (8.56%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.