One of the biggest matches of decision day in the MLS takes place at the Nissan Stadium on Sunday, with Nashville SC hosting New York Red Bulls.
The hosts have already secured a playoff spot but need to better Philadelphia Union's result in order to secure second place, whilst the visitors are one of six sides fighting it out for the final three playoff places in the Eastern Conference.
Match preview
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Despite sitting third in the Eastern Conference heading into the final fixture of the regular season, Nashville are yet to win over many critics around the MLS.
Losing just four times all campaign so far, as well as possessing an unbeaten home record, Nashville should have been challenging New England Revolution for the title based on those statistics.
However, Gary Smith's side have drawn an incredible 17 of their 33 league games, with the inability to turn draws into three points due to a lack of a clinical edge in front of goal being the reason for doubts around their potential.
This was clearly not the case when Nashville put six past FC Cincinnati two matches ago, but they returned to another draw when their trip to Florida finished 1-1 against Orlando City last weekend.
Hany Mukhtar scored his 15th goal of the season in that one, with the German forward's form vital to his side's chances in the playoffs.
Heading into decision day, Nashville need to better Philadelphia's result in order to secure second spot and two home playoff ties as a result, but also to gain some momentum ahead of the knockout games to follow the regular season.
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Meanwhile, while their hosts have already secured a spot in the post-season fixtures, the visitors require at least a point on Sunday to make sure of theirs.
The Red Bulls head into the weekend in seventh spot - the final playoff position - with Montreal and DC United looking to take advantage of any slip up on the final day of the regular season.
Gerhard Struber knows his side will be on the road in round one if they are to secure a spot, but he will have his side focused on getting the job done to ensure they are participating regardless.
Their chances of reaching the playoffs appeared dead and buried two months ago after a poor run of just one win in 11 games, but seven wins and just one defeat in the 11 MLS fixtures that followed has seen them climb rapidly up the table and into the final spot.
Like Nashville, the Red Bulls struggle to net many goals, with just nine scored in their last 10, and only netting on more than occasion in one of these games.
However, their stubborn defensive record has been the primary reason for their excellent end-of-season form, with just four conceded in this 11-game run.
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Team News
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The hosts will remain without Handwalla Bwana, Dax McCarty and Daniel Rios on Sunday, although the trio are nearing returns and so will be expected to contribute to the playoff ties that will follow.
Mukhtar's relationship with CJ Sapong up front has been vital to their success this season so far, with the pair directly contributing to 41 goals between them in the MLS, and will start together again here looking to gain form ahead of the post-season matches.
As for the visitors, they will be without their top goalscorer Patryk Klimala for the trip to Nashville, with the forward serving a one-match suspension due to an accumulation of yellow cards.
Omir Fernandez remains a doubt after missing the last four games due to injury, but Andrew Gutman will return to the squad after having to sit out against his parent club Atlanta United in midweek.
Defender Aaron Long remains a long-term injury absentee for boss Struber and will not feature until next season.
Nashville SC possible starting lineup:
Willis; Johnston, Maher, Zimmerman, Romney, Miller; Godoy, Muyl, Leal; Sapong, Mukhtar
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Miguel; Duncan, Nealis, Reyes, Tolkin; Yearwood, Davis; Casseres, Carmona, Clark; Fabio
We say: Nashville SC 1-1 New York Red Bulls
Two low-scoring teams with stubborn defences mean this tie has a draw written all over it, particularly considering the nervy circumstances surrounding the importance of the game.
Neither will want to lose this and so it looks as though it will be a tight and cagey affair, with very few goals scored as a result.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nashville SC win with a probability of 43.8%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 31.56% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nashville SC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.89%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 1-2 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.
