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[monks data]
Morecambe
EFL Trophy | Group Stage
Nov 9, 2021 at 7pm UK
Globe Arena
Carlisle United

Morecambe
0 - 2
Carlisle


Gibson (34')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Gibson (49'), Mellor (54')

Preview: Morecambe vs. Carlisle United - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Trophy clash between Morecambe and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Carlisle United head into their EFL Trophy fixture with Morecambe having already booked their place in the knockout stages.

However, at a time when the League Two outfit still have ambitions of finishing top of Group A, the home side sit bottom and are out of the competition.


Match preview

Motherwell manager Stephen Robinson pictured in April 2018© Reuters

Morecambe remain in somewhat of a transitional period under Stephen Robinson, many of their points in League One coming in flurries and defeats being in succession.

Nevertheless, they are still outside of the relegation zone, albeit on goal difference, and that should represent some kind of success given the upheaval during the summer.

Despite their six-match winless streak in the third tier, Morecambe got back to winning ways at the weekend, edging out Newport County by a 1-0 scoreline in the FA Cup first round.

Aaron Wildig, who has endured a difficult period this season, bagged his first strike of the campaign, his last effort coming back in the playoff semi-finals in May.

While Morecambe already find themselves out of this tournament, Robinson will be demanding that whoever takes to the pitch on Tuesday night gives him food for thought ahead of their next league game.

Carlisle share similar form to their hosts, ending a poor run of results with a much-needed victory in the FA Cup on Saturday afternoon.

However, their success came against non-league Horsham, and it cannot be ignored that their last win over an EFL team came all the way back on September 4.

New boss Keith Millen has been introduced as a replacement for Chris Beech, the expectation being that he can move the club away from the League Two relegation zone in his first managerial position since 2011.

Opportunities could continue to be given to young forward Brad Young, the 18-year-old following a goal against Everton Under-23s with a double versus Horsham.

Morecambe EFL Trophy form:
  • L
  • D

Morecambe form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W

Carlisle United EFL Trophy form:
  • D
  • W

Carlisle United form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • W



Team News

Robinson will almost certainly make widespread changes, handing starts to the players who featured on the substitutes' bench at the weekend.

Wildig should be among the players to be recalled to the side, while the entire back four could be changed and Shayon Harrison may feature in attack.

Taylor Charters and Young are among a number of Carlisle players who will expect an opportunity on Tuesday night.

Manasse Mampala is in line to be included in the final third with Lewis Alessandra or Tristan Abrahams dropping down to the substitutes' bench, while Morgan Feeney should also feature in the middle of the backline.

Morecambe possible starting lineup:
Letheren; Gibson, Delaney, Mensah, Cooney; Wildig, Phillips, Diagouraga; McDonald, Harrison, Gnahoua

Carlisle United possible starting lineup:
Howard; Riley, Feeney, Whelan, Armer; Charters, Guy, Gibson; Young, Abrahams, Mampala


SM words green background

We say: Morecambe 1-1 Carlisle United (Carlisle to win on penalties)

While Morecambe will inevitably make alterations, that does not necessarily mean that it will be one-way traffic. Nevertheless, we still expect the visitors to do enough for a share of the spoils as they bid to impress their new boss, even winning this contest on penalties.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Written by
Darren Plant

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 39.58%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 34.1% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-0 (9.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Morecambe vs Carlisle

Morecambe
47.5%
Draw
22.5%
Carlisle United
30.0%
40
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