Major League Soccer
Toronto
Oct 1, 2023 12.30am
2
3
HT : 4 4
FT BMO Field
Cincinnati
  • Jonathan Osorio 39' goal
  • Jonathan Osorio 39' goal
  • Jonathan Osorio 44' goal
  • Jonathan Osorio 44' goal
  • Themi Antonoglou 74' yellowcard
  • Themi Antonoglou 74' yellowcard
  • Prince Osei Owusu 84' yellowcard
  • Prince Osei Owusu 86' yellowcard
  • goal Brandon Vazquez 28'
  • goal Brandon Vazquez 28'
  • goal Brandon Vazquez 35'
  • goal Brandon Vazquez 35'
  • goal Aaron Boupendza 72'
  • goal Aaron Boupendza 72'

Toronto vs FC Cincinnati - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Toronto

All competitions
Major League Soccer
Last game
Sep 24, 2023 6.00pm
NY City 3 - 0 Toronto
Goals scored
26
Top scorer
Deandre Kerr

FC Cincinnati

All competitions
Major League Soccer
Last game
Sep 24, 2023 12.30am
Cincinnati 3 - 0 Charlotte FC
Goals scored
64
Top scorer
Luciano Acosta

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 40.85%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 34.18% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.7%) and 0-2 (6.51%). The likeliest Toronto win was 2-1 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.

Result

Toronto 34.18% ▲ (+0.39)
Draw 24.97% ▲ (+0.08)
FC Cincinnati 40.85% ▼ (-0.47)

Both Teams to Score: 

57.46% ▼ (-0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5 54.12% ▼ (-0.25)
Under 2.5 45.88% ▲ (+0.24)
Over 3.5 31.81% ▼ (-0.23)
Under 3.5 68.19% ▲ (+0.23)
Over 4.5 15.94% ▼ (-0.17)
Under 4.5 84.06% ▲ (+0.17)

Toronto Goals

Over 0.5 74.03% ▲ (+0.12)
Under 0.5 25.97% ▼ (-0.12)
Over 1.5 39.02% ▲ (+0.16)
Under 1.5 60.98% ▼ (-0.17)

FC Cincinnati Goals

Over 0.5 77.61% ▼ (-0.34)
Under 0.5 22.39% ▲ (+0.33)
Over 1.5 44.11% ▼ (-0.50)
Under 1.5 55.89% ▲ (+0.49)

Score analysis

Toronto 34.18%
Draw 24.97%
FC Cincinnati 40.85%
Toronto
2-1 @ 7.91% ▲ (+0.06)
1-0 @ 7.84% ▲ (+0.11)
2-0 @ 5.28% ▲ (+0.09)
3-1 @ 3.56% ▲ (+0.04)
3-2 @ 2.66% ▲ (+0.01)
3-0 @ 2.38% ▲ (+0.05)
4-1 @ 1.2% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 3.36%
Total : 34.18%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.73% ▲ (+0.06)
2-2 @ 5.92% ▼ (-0.02)
0-0 @ 5.81% ▲ (+0.06)
3-3 @ 1.33% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 24.97%
FC Cincinnati
1-2 @ 8.78% ▼ (-0.06)
0-1 @ 8.7% ▲ (+0.01)
0-2 @ 6.51% ▼ (-0.07)
1-3 @ 4.38% ▼ (-0.07)
0-3 @ 3.25% ▼ (-0.07)
2-3 @ 2.95% ▼ (-0.04)
1-4 @ 1.64% ▼ (-0.05)
0-4 @ 1.22% ▼ (-0.04)
2-4 @ 1.11% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 40.85%

Head to Head

Major League Soccer
Cincinnati
Jun 22, 2023 12.30am
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT Nippert Stadium
Toronto
  • Santiago Arias 35' goal
  • Santiago Arias 35' goal
  • Luciano Acosta 54' goal
  • Luciano Acosta 54' goal
  • Dominique Badji 63' goal
  • Dominique Badji 63' goal
Major League Soccer
Cincinnati
May 5, 2022 12.30am
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT
Toronto
  • Calvin Harris 2' goal
  • Luciano Acosta 57' goal
  • Obinna Nwobodo 59' yellowcard
  • Tyler Blackett 75' yellowcard
  • Alvaro Barreal 88' yellowcard
  • redcard Ralph Priso-Mbongue 6'
  • yellowcard Jayden Nelson 12'
Major League Soccer
Toronto
Apr 30, 2022 8.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT
Cincinnati
  • Jesus Jimenez 65' goal
  • Ifunanyachi Achara 86' yellowcard
  • goal Ian Murphy 44'
  • yellowcard Alvas Powell 50'
  • goal Luciano Acosta 52'
Major League Soccer Gameweek 36
Toronto
Sep 30, 2021 12.00am
3
2
HT : 0 1
FT
Cincinnati
  • Jacob Shaffelburg 48' goal
  • Jacob Shaffelburg 48' goal
  • Marco Delgado 55' goal
  • Marco Delgado 55' goal
  • Ifunanyachi Achara 59' yellowcard
  • Ifunanyachi Achara 60' yellowcard
  • Ifunanyachi Achara 65' goal
  • Ifunanyachi Achara 65' goal
  • Yeferson Soteldo 76' yellowcard
  • Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty 90' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Florian Valot 32'
  • goal Ronald Matarrita 38'
  • yellowcard Edgar Castillo 41'
  • yellowcard Gustavo Vallecilla 59'
  • goal Luciano Acosta 72'
  • yellowcard Caleb Stanko 74'
  • yellowcard 88'
Major League Soccer Gameweek 30
Cincinnati
Sep 12, 2021 1.00am
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT
Toronto
  • Brenner 39' goal
  • Haris Medunjanin 45'+3' yellowcard
  • Geoff Cameron 50' yellowcard
  • Haris Medunjanin 58' goal
  • Gustavo Vallecilla 84' yellowcard
  • Florian Valot 85' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Justin Morrow 37'
Major League Soccer Gameweek 13
Toronto
Jun 27, 2021 12.00am
0
2
HT : 0 1
FT
Cincinnati
  • Michael Bradley 33' yellowcard
  • goal Allan Cruz 4'
  • yellowcard Yuya Kubo 38'
  • yellowcard Ronald Matarrita 62'
  • goal Luciano Acosta 68'
  • yellowcard Allan Cruz 78'

Form Data

NY City 3 - 0 Toronto
Inter Miami 4 - 0 Toronto
Toronto 1 - 2 Vancouver
Toronto 3 - 1 Philadelphia
Columbus Crew 2 - 0 Toronto
Toronto 2 - 3 Montreal
Cincinnati 3 - 0 Charlotte FC
Montreal 1 - 1 Cincinnati
Philadelphia 2 - 2 Cincinnati
Cincinnati 0 - 1 Orlando City
Atlanta 1 - 2 Cincinnati
Cincinnati 3 - 0 NY City