Major League Soccer

Oct 1, 2023 at 12.30am UK

BMO Field

Toronto
2 - 3
Cincinnati

Osorio (39', 39', 44', 44')
Antonoglou (74'), Antonoglou (74'), Osei Owusu (84'), Osei Owusu (86')

FT(HT: 4-4)

Vazquez (28', 28', 35', 35'), Boupendza (72', 72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between Toronto and FC Cincinnati, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toronto

All competitions

Last Game: NY City 3-0 Toronto
Sunday, September 24 at 6pm in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

FC Cincinnati

All competitions

Last Game: Cincinnati 3-0 Charlotte FC
Sunday, September 24 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 40.85%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 34.18% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.7%) and 0-2 (6.51%). The likeliest Toronto win was 2-1 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.

Result
Toronto	Draw	FC Cincinnati
34.18% ( 0.39)	24.97% ( 0.07)	40.85% ( -0.46)

Both teams to score 57.46% (

-0.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.12% (

-0.24)

45.88% (

0.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.81% (

-0.23)

68.19% (

0.23)

Toronto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.03% (

0.12)

25.97% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.02% (

0.16)

60.98% (

-0.16)

FC Cincinnati Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.61% (

-0.33)

22.39% (

0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.11% (

-0.49)

55.89% (

0.49)

Score Analysis

Toronto 34.18%

FC Cincinnati 40.85%

Draw 24.97%

Toronto	Draw	FC Cincinnati
2-1 @ 7.91% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 7.84% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 5.28% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 3.56% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.66% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.38% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.36% Total : 34.18%	1-1 @ 11.73% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.92% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.81% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.97%	1-2 @ 8.78% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 8.7% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.51% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 4.38% ( -0.07) 0-3 @ 3.25% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 2.95% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 1.64% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 1.22% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.32% Total : 40.85%