Major League Soccer

Sep 24, 2023 at 6pm UK

Yankee Stadium

NY City
3 - 0
Toronto

Perea (2'), Jasson (45+4'), Fernandez (54')
Fernandez (90+2')

FT(HT: 2-0)

O'Neill (30')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between New York City FC and Toronto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

New York City FC

All competitions

Last Game: NY City 2-0 Orlando City
Thursday, September 21 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Toronto

All competitions

Last Game: Inter Miami 4-0 Toronto
Thursday, September 21 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 71.55%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 11.26%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.13%), while for a Toronto win it was 0-1 (3.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.

Result
New York City FC	Draw	Toronto
71.55% ( 0.23)	17.19% ( -0.07)	11.26% ( -0.16)

Both teams to score 50.14% (

-0.35)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.89% (

-0.17)

39.11% (

0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.56% (

-0.17)

61.43% (

0.17)

New York City FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.34% (

0.01)

9.66% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

67.76% (

0.03)

32.23% (

-0.03)

Toronto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.5% (

-0.4)

44.5% (

0.4)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.47% (

-0.32)

80.53% (

0.32)

Score Analysis

New York City FC 71.54%

Toronto 11.26%

Draw 17.19%

New York City FC	Draw	Toronto
2-0 @ 11.74% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 10.04% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 9.51% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 9.15% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 7.41% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 5.35% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 4.33% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 2.5% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 2.02% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.75% ( -0.02) 6-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.79% Total : 71.54%	1-1 @ 8.13% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.3% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 3.85% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.91% Total : 17.19%	0-1 @ 3.48% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 1.41% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.04% Total : 11.26%