Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 71.55%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 11.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.13%), while for a Toronto win it was 0-1 (3.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.