Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 59.42%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Atlanta United had a probability of 19.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.14%) and 1-0 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.72%), while for an Atlanta United win it was 1-2 (5.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New York City FC | Draw | Atlanta United |
| 59.42% | 21.02% | 19.56% |
| Both teams to score 57.61% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.44% | 39.56% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.09% | 61.9% |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87% | 12.99% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.49% | 39.51% |
| Atlanta United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.21% | 33.78% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.55% | 70.44% |
| Score Analysis |
| New York City FC | Draw | Atlanta United |
| 2-1 @ 9.92% 2-0 @ 9.14% 1-0 @ 8.96% 3-1 @ 6.75% 3-0 @ 6.22% 3-2 @ 3.66% 4-1 @ 3.44% 4-0 @ 3.17% 4-2 @ 1.87% 5-1 @ 1.41% 5-0 @ 1.3% Other @ 3.59% Total : 59.42% | 1-1 @ 9.72% 2-2 @ 5.38% 0-0 @ 4.39% 3-3 @ 1.33% Other @ 0.2% Total : 21.02% | 1-2 @ 5.28% 0-1 @ 4.76% 0-2 @ 2.59% 2-3 @ 1.95% 1-3 @ 1.91% 0-3 @ 0.94% Other @ 2.15% Total : 19.56% |