Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a DC United win with a probability of 53.62%. A win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 23.7% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a DC United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.07%) and 2-0 (8.42%). The likeliest Sporting Kansas City win was 1-2 (6.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for DC United in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for DC United.