| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | 26 | 61 |
| 2 | Austin FC | 31 | 18 | 54 |
| 3 | Dallas | 31 | 11 | 49 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Dallas | 31 | 11 | 49 |
| 3 | Nashville SC | 31 | 11 | 46 |
| 4 | Portland Timbers | 31 | 3 | 45 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 47.38%. A win for Nashville SC had a probability of 28.42% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.21%) and 2-0 (7.64%). The likeliest Nashville SC win was 1-2 (6.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Austin FC | Draw | Nashville SC |
| 47.38% ( | 24.2% ( | 28.42% ( |
| Both teams to score 57.35% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.2% ( | 44.8% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.84% ( | 67.16% ( |
| Austin FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.97% ( | 19.03% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.39% ( | 50.6% ( |
| Nashville SC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.83% ( | 29.17% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.89% ( | 65.11% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Austin FC | Draw | Nashville SC |
| 2-1 @ 9.41% ( 1-0 @ 9.21% ( 2-0 @ 7.64% ( 3-1 @ 5.21% ( 3-0 @ 4.23% ( 3-2 @ 3.21% ( 4-1 @ 2.16% ( 4-0 @ 1.75% ( 4-2 @ 1.33% ( Other @ 3.23% Total : 47.38% | 1-1 @ 11.34% ( 2-2 @ 5.8% ( 0-0 @ 5.55% ( 3-3 @ 1.32% ( Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.19% | 1-2 @ 6.99% ( 0-1 @ 6.84% ( 0-2 @ 4.21% ( 1-3 @ 2.87% ( 2-3 @ 2.38% ( 0-3 @ 1.73% ( Other @ 3.4% Total : 28.42% |