Wycombe Wanderers and MK Dons will look to take another step towards promotion when they square off in the first leg of their League One playoff semi-final on Thursday night.
While the visitors to Adams Park only narrowly missed out on a place in the top two, sixth-placed Wycombe ended the regular campaign as one of the form teams in the division.
Match preview
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At the start of the season, MK Dons would have taken a playoff spot without a second thought if it had been offered to them, but there are certainly mixed feelings about finishing in third place.
Liam Manning's team have been sensational throughout this campaign, collecting 89 points from their 46 fixtures, but only winning three of their final six fixtures resulted in them missing out on the automatic spots by a point.
On a positive note, they concluded the campaign with the demolition of Plymouth Argyle, who subsequently missed out on their playoffs themselves after such a humbling.
Scott Twine scored four times during the 5-0 victory at Home Park, taking his tally to 20 goals and 13 assists in the third tier this season, and the playmaker has a huge part to play in the end-of-season finale.
MK Dons also have fond memories of the corresponding league fixture, Twine netting the only strike of the contest on January 29.
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Meanwhile, it was Wycombe who directly benefitted from their upcoming opponents defeating Plymouth, and Gareth Ainsworth will feel that his side deserved that bit of good fortune.
A seven-match winless streak soon after the turn of the year left Wycombe scrapping to keep their promotion hopes alive, particularly with some of the teams around them improving their form.
However, the Chairboys ended the campaign on a 12-match unbeaten run, collecting a total of 28 points to edge out Plymouth courtesy of their final-day triumph at Burton Albion.
Although a draw would have proven enough, Jordan Obita's winner five minutes from time has maintained Wycombe's momentum, even if just seven goals have come from the last five outings.
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Team News
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Ainsworth may be prepared to stick with the Wycombe XI which dug in deep to claim all three points at the Pirelli Stadium on Saturday.
Middlesbrough loanee Lewis Wing is the most likely to come into the starting lineup, but Dominic Gape is expected to retain his spot in midfield.
Chris Forino-Joseph may also feature in the centre of defence if he recovers from the injury which kept him out of the Burton game.
Manning will also feel like he has little reason to make any unenforced alterations to the side which cruised past Plymouth.
Key players were also rested during the closing quarter of that contest, and it leaves the likes of Connor Wickham having to settle for a place on the substitutes' bench.
Mohamed Eisa is expected to miss out again having missed the last three fixtures through injury.
Wycombe Wanderers possible starting lineup:
Stockdale; McCarthy, Stewart, Tafazolli, Jacobson; Gape, Scowen; McCleary, Horgan, Obita; Vokes
MK Dons possible starting lineup:
Cumming; O'Hora, Darling, Lewington; Hayden, Coventry, Kasumu, McEachran, Harvie; Twine, Parrott
We say: Wycombe Wanderers 1-2 MK Dons
Given the length of Wycombe's unbeaten streak, this feels like a well-matched contest and one which is difficult to call. However, regardless of the recent disappointment, accumulating 89 points is a phenomenal total, and it is a statistic which leads to us predicting an away win for MK Dons.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wycombe Wanderers win with a probability of 39.06%. A win for MK Dons had a probability of 34.57% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wycombe Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.45%) and 2-0 (6.75%). The likeliest MK Dons win was 0-1 (9.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wycombe Wanderers would win this match.
