They handed the Rave Green their first defeat of the 2021 Major League Soccer campaign, and a year later, the Seattle Sounders have a chance to repay the favour to Minnesota United when the two sides face each other at Allianz Field on Saturday.
Seattle come into this encounter unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions, while the Loons have yet to lose in 2022, with two wins and two draws.
Match preview
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Minnesota were in a bad place in the early stages of 2021, without a point after four matches, but so far this season, the bounces have gone their way as they look to extend their winning streak to three games.
Adrian Heath has turned this team into one of the hardest working sides in the league, who make you earn every pass while having some effective man-marking.
The Loons have a solid squad across the board, who are difficult to break down, conceding only two goals so far, second only to the Chicago Fire.
It is hard to argue with the results, however, if not for some splendid goalkeeping, they may be a lot lower in the standings than they are right now.
If the Loons can develop more of a killer instinct in the final third, they could be a pretty formidable side, firing 17 efforts on target thus far but only scoring four goals.
They have only trailed in one of their encounters to date, as this group have been able to settle into most of their matches with a good sense of rhythm and ball movement, despite being relatively passive going forward.
Allianz Field has become a real advantage for Minnesota, unbeaten in five straight regular-season contests and suffering only two defeats in their previous 17 fixtures played in St. Paul.
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It is unusual to see the Rave Green below the playoff line in the Western Conference, but that is the scenario for Brian Schmetzer and his Sounders team at the moment.
They have incurred a fair amount of injuries to the core of their squad, while also dealing with a demanding schedule in the CONCACAF Champions League (CCL) along with the MLS regular season.
Fatigue may have been a factor for them before the two-week break, but one thing that you are unlikely to see from Seattle is an overreaction in spite of their slow start, as this is a veteran group of players with a strong mentality to solider on regardless of who is in the lineup.
The Sounders have contested four of the last six MLS Cup finals, and an achievement like that does not happen by sheer luck or coincidence.
Sitting in 11th in the Western Conference is a far cry from what we saw them achieve at the beginning of 2021, when they set a league record to start the year with a 13-match unbeaten run.
While it has not been an ideal start to the season, Schmetzer does have plenty of tactical flexibility, which is often underestimated.
When their fullbacks play aggressively and stretch the field out wide, they are a tough team to contend with, as they have the speed and skill to burn you on the flanks, with an ability to shut down the opposition when they try to break.
Having the bulk of the possession did not work in their opening two encounters, so they changed things up and invited more pressure against the Los Angeles Galaxy and Austin FC, which earned them a win and a draw.
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Team News
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Luis Amarilla scored the only goal for the Loons in their previous encounter, helping them to a 1-0 victory over the San Jose Earthquakes, while Dayne St. Clair collected his second consecutive clean sheet, though he might not be available for this one, as he was with the Canadian national team earlier this week in their match against Panama.
Wil Trapp had quite the game versus the Quakes with a pass completion rate of 92.3%, while Tyler Miller will hope to get the start against his former team as he was in the Sounders' organization from 2015 to 2017.
Patrick Weah is out with a knee injury, Chase Gasper might miss this one after taking a knock, Eric Dick is dealing with a thorax issue, while Romain Metanire, Franco Fragapane and Oniel Fisher are all expected to sit this one out due to thigh problems.
Seattle will be missing Josh Atencio with a quad strain, Jimmy Medranda has a strain in his left hamstring, Raul Ruidiaz has a right hamstring strain and Andrew Thomas continues to suffer the effects of a right calf strain.
Will Bruin scored his first of the season, helping the Sounders to a 1-1 draw in their previous encounter versus Austin thanks to a nice set-up from Cristian Roldan, while Nicolas Lodeiro missed that match because of a right adductor strain.
Four new players who were not in the opening lineup in their draw (1-1) versus Leon at the CONCACAF Champions League started their last MLS encounter, with Obed Vargas, Leo Chu, Stefan Cleveland and Bruin starting instead of Kelyn Rowe, Jordan Morris, Fredy Montero and Stefan Frei.
Minnesota United possible starting lineup:
Miller; Dotson, Boxall, Kallman, Dibassy; Trapp, Hayes; Lod, Reynoso, Fragapane; Amarilla
Seattle Sounders possible starting lineup:
Frei; Rowe, Tolo, Arreaga, Ragen; Paulo, Leyva; Chu, Rusnak, Baker-Whiting; Montero
We say: Minnesota United 1-1 Seattle Sounders
A goal or fewer has been the norm for both of these teams so far this season, and we expect that trend to continue this weekend.
Minnesota have relied on excellent goalkeeping and a solid midfield shape, while the Sounders are still trying to find their form in MLS and are in need of some consistency in front of goal.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minnesota United win with a probability of 50.27%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Seattle Sounders had a probability of 23.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Minnesota United win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.82%) and 2-1 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.29%), while for a Seattle Sounders win it was 0-1 (8.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
