Two sides in the MLS Western Conference playoff spots meet on Sunday evening as Minnesota United welcome Colorado Rapids to the Allianz Field.
With just seven games remaining, the visitors sit third and will still harbour ambitions of top spot, while their hosts are hanging on to the final playoff position in seventh.
Match preview
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Minnesota have produced an up-and-down year and they will hope their draw last weekend is the start of an up rather than a down.
It was a disappointing result, however, as an FC Dallas side who are currently down in 11th held them to a 0-0 stalemate, recording their first clean sheet in nine games and ending a three-game losing streak in the process.
The Loons also lost Emanuel Reynoso to a red card in the 89th minute after a VAR review showed that he had stepped on the ankle of Szabolcs Schon whilst trying to win the ball - the Argentine playmaker will be sorely missed, as the team struggled for creativity during his previous absence.
That result leaves Minnesota clinging on to the final playoff position, with eighth-placed Vancouver Whitecaps just one point behind, and they will face a tougher challenge this weekend from a strong Rapids side.
Their home form will give head coach Adrian Heath reason to be positive, though, as they have won five of their last seven games on their own turf.
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Although Colorado's away form has also been fairly impressive this season, they come into this match on the back of a disheartening 3-0 loss to their rivals for the Western Conference crown, Seattle Sounders.
A win would have seen Robin Fraser's side draw level with the Sounders and move just one point behind would-be league leaders Sporting Kansas City, but a Cristian Roldan goal in the second minute set the tone and the result was already secured by half time with two further first-half goals.
Lucas Esteves compounded matters by seeing red just after the hour-mark - despite only having been subbed on at half time - but Colorado were, at least, able to avoid any further damage to their goal difference, with the help of VAR, which ruled out a late Seattle goal.
Fraser will have thought they had turned a corner with a comfortable 3-0 win over Austin in the previous game - after four consecutive draws - but will now need to pick his team up again.
Whilst it could have been so much closer, a six-point gap to the top is not insurmountable.
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Team News
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Minnesota are without a raft of players this weekend, with Dayne St Clair, Michael Boxall, Robin Lod, Jukka Raitala and Romain Metanire all away on international duty.
Hassani Dotson and Jan Gregus also remain out injured, leaving Heath with some thinking to do as he works around a very thin squad.
Both sides will have a player suspended due to the aforementioned red cards - Reynoso for United and Esteves for the Rapids.
The visitors are also without Mark-Anthony Kaye and Kellyn Acosta, who are both crucial to the midfield setup, due to international duty.
Collen Warner and Jonathan Lewis look set to fill that void as best they can, with Fraser potentially switching to a 4-3-3 formation.
Minnesota United possible starting lineup:
Miller; Trapp, Dibassy, Kallman, Gasper; Hayes, Alonso; Hansen, Fragapane, Finlay; Adi
Colorado Rapids possible starting lineup:
Yarbrough; Rosenberry, Trusty, Abubakar, Galvan; Price, Warner, Bassett; Shinyashiki, Barrios, Lewis
We say: Minnesota United 1-1 Colorado Rapids
Both sides are lacking a large number of their usual starting XI, so this match could come down to who adapts better to those absences.
The Rapids have come out on top in the pair's two previous meetings - and have certainly had the better season - but will really miss Acosta and took a hit to their morale last time out, so we are backing a draw on this occasion.
Top tip
James Mackenzie
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minnesota United win with a probability of 50.49%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Colorado Rapids had a probability of 23.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Minnesota United win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.93%) and 2-1 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.29%), while for a Colorado Rapids win it was 0-1 (8.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
