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Major League Soccer

Major League Soccer
May 4, 2025 at 2.15am UK
 
FC Dallas

San Diego
5 - 0
Dallas

Lozano (20' pen., 20' pen., 27', 27'), Dreyer (56', 56'), Valakari (73', 73'), Iloski (87', 87')
Tverskov (55'), Tverskov (55')
FT(HT: 4-0)

Urhoghide (36'), Urhoghide (36'), Ramiro (76'), Ramiro (76')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's MLS clash between San Diego and Dallas, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

San Diego

All competitions
Last Game: San Diego 1-3 Salt Lake
Sunday, April 27 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Dallas

All competitions
Last Game: Inter Miami 3-4 Dallas
Sunday, April 27 at 10pm in Major League Soccer

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Diego win with a probability of 43.81%. A win for Dallas had a probability of 32.66% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a San Diego win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.42%) and 2-0 (6.28%). The likeliest Dallas win was 1-2 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.64%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that San Diego would win this match.

Result
San DiegoDrawDallas
43.81% (0.437 0.44)23.52% (0.033000000000001 0.03)32.66% (-0.465 -0.46)
Both teams to score 62.17% (-0.309 -0.31)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.49% (-0.324 -0.32)39.5% (0.331 0.33)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.15% (-0.34 -0.34)61.85% (0.346 0.35)
San Diego Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.61% (0.052000000000007 0.05)18.38% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.48% (0.085999999999999 0.09)49.52% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)
Dallas Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.18% (-0.422 -0.42)23.82% (0.427 0.43)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.01% (-0.612 -0.61)57.99% (0.617 0.62)
Score Analysis
    San Diego 43.81%
    Dallas 32.66%
    Draw 23.52%
San DiegoDrawDallas
2-1 @ 9.01% (0.053999999999998 0.05)
1-0 @ 7.42% (0.125 0.13)
2-0 @ 6.28% (0.115 0.12)
3-1 @ 5.09% (0.037999999999999 0.04)
3-2 @ 3.65% (-0.018 -0.02)
3-0 @ 3.55% (0.071 0.07)
4-1 @ 2.15% (0.019 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.55% (-0.006 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.5% (0.032 0.03)
Other @ 3.62%
Total : 43.81%
1-1 @ 10.64% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-2 @ 6.46% (-0.042 -0.04)
0-0 @ 4.38% (0.067 0.07)
3-3 @ 1.75% (-0.031 -0.03)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 23.52%
1-2 @ 7.63% (-0.061 -0.06)
0-1 @ 6.28% (0.019 0.02)
0-2 @ 4.51% (-0.043 -0.04)
1-3 @ 3.65% (-0.076 -0.08)
2-3 @ 3.09% (-0.06 -0.06)
0-3 @ 2.16% (-0.048 -0.05)
1-4 @ 1.31% (-0.044 -0.04)
2-4 @ 1.11% (-0.035 -0.03)
Other @ 2.93%
Total : 32.66%