MLS Playoffs | Regular Season

May 29, 2025 at 12.30am UK

Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Atlanta
3 - 2
Orlando City

Miranchuk (19', 19'), Slisz (83', 83'), Thiare (90+5', 90+5')
Slisz (63'), Slisz (63'), Klich (79'), Klich (79'), Fortune (82'), Fortune (82')

FT(HT: 2-4)

Araujo (4', 4'), Enrique (32', 32')
Atuesta (90+1'), Gallese (90+3'), Atuesta (90+1'), Gallese (90+3')
Araujo (77'), Araujo (77')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's MLS Playoffs clash between Atlanta United and Orlando City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atlanta United

Last Game: Atlanta 1-1 DC United
Saturday, October 18 at 11pm in Major League Soccer

Orlando City

Last Game: Chicago Fire 3-1 Orlando City
Thursday, October 23 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 38.46%. A win for Orlando City had a probability of 38.01% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.66%) and 2-0 (5.3%). The likeliest Orlando City win was 1-2 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atlanta United would win this match.

Result
Atlanta United	Draw	Orlando City
38.46% ( -1.05)	23.54% ( -0.49)	38.01% ( 1.54)

Both teams to score 63.26% (

1.97)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.45% (

2.52)

38.55% (

-2.52)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.15% (

2.62)

60.85% (

-2.61)

Atlanta United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.65% (

0.59)

20.35% (

-0.59)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.24% (

0.94)

52.75% (

-0.94)

Orlando City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.43% (

1.9)

20.57% (

-1.89)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.9% (

2.91)

53.09% (

-2.91)

Score Analysis

Atlanta United 38.46%

Orlando City 38.01%

Draw 23.53%

Atlanta United	Draw	Orlando City
2-1 @ 8.39% ( -0.2) 1-0 @ 6.66% ( -0.69) 2-0 @ 5.3% ( -0.44) 3-1 @ 4.45% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 3.52% ( 0.18) 3-0 @ 2.82% ( -0.18) 4-1 @ 1.77% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.4% ( 0.1) 4-0 @ 1.12% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.02% Total : 38.46%	1-1 @ 10.53% ( -0.45) 2-2 @ 6.63% ( 0.22) 0-0 @ 4.19% ( -0.52) 3-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.19) Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.53%	1-2 @ 8.33% ( 0.13) 0-1 @ 6.62% ( -0.41) 0-2 @ 5.24% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 4.39% ( 0.31) 2-3 @ 3.5% ( 0.31) 0-3 @ 2.76% ( 0.15) 1-4 @ 1.74% ( 0.21) 2-4 @ 1.38% ( 0.19) 0-4 @ 1.09% ( 0.12) Other @ 2.96% Total : 38.01%