Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 38.46%. A win for Orlando City had a probability of 38.01% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.66%) and 2-0 (5.3%). The likeliest Orlando City win was 1-2 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atlanta United would win this match.