Two sides with impressive records at the beginning of the new Bundesliga season meet at the Opel Arena on Sunday, when Mainz 05 host Union Berlin.
The hosts find themselves in a European spot after the opening six matches, with their visitors just one point and two places behind them.
Match preview
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Despite a defeat last weekend, Mainz continue to surprise supporters and pundits alike with their performances and results in the early stages of this campaign.
Manager Bo Svensson has overseen his side continuing their form and momentum gained from the final few months of the 2020-21 season, where Die Nullfunfer miraculously fought off an inevitable relegation from the top flight.
The record includes just one defeat in the last 11 matches of the previous campaign, and only two in the opening six of this one so far, which remains impressive for a side tipped to struggle at the wrong end of the Bundesliga table yet again.
Successes over RB Leipzig, Greuther Furth and Hoffenheim in the opening weeks, and a stubborn defence boasting just three goals conceded, have lifted the hosts to an unlikely sixth position in the table.
As mentioned above, Svensson's men did fall to their second loss last weekend. Although, a 1-0 defeat at the home of Bayer Leverkusen is hardly a concern for the manager, with his side did still managing to create their chances despite a lack of possession, and on another day could have come away with at least a point from a positive display.
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As for the visitors, they come into this match on Sunday with a respectable record during the early stages of the season themselves.
After qualifying for the Europa Conference League in 2020-21, Union have remained hard to beat so far this year too, with just the one defeat tasted from the opening six matches.
Urs Fischer and his side have frustrated fellow rivals for European places already this campaign, with draws against Leverkusen and Hoffenheim adding to a victory over Borussia Monchengladbach.
With the only defeat being at the hands of Borussia Dortmund at Signal Iduna Park, Fischer will be pleased with a position of eighth place in the table after a difficult set of fixtures to begin with.
Die Eisernen will look to bring their momentum into this weekend's fixture, after registering back-to-back victories against Arminia Bielefeld in league action last week and Maccabi Haifa in the Europa Conference League in midweek.
Andreas Voglsammer, Kevin Behrens and Taiwo Awoniyi netted for the Berlin side in a comprehensive 3-0 victory over their Israeli opponents on Thursday, which also saw the side register consecutive clean sheets too.
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Team News
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Mainz head into Sunday's fixture potentially missing two important defenders, with captain Moussa Niakhate definitely ruled out and Alexander Hack registered as a doubt too.
Towering striker Adam Szalai will remain unavailable due to a knee injury so few changes are expected to Svensson's side at the weekend.
Meanwhile, the visitors may be tempted to rotate their squad after another midweek outing means fresh legs could be required as they return to league action.
Defender Timo Baumgartl will miss out through a head injury, in what is the manager's only injury concern.
Behrens looks set to lead the line after netting in each of the last two matches, including the late winner from the bench against Bielefeld last weekend.
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Widmer, Bell, St Juste; Brosinski, Barreiro, Kohr, Boetius, Lucoqui; Burkardt, Onisiwo
Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Luthe; Friedrich, Knoche, Jaeckel; Trimmel, Haraguchi, Kruse, Khedira, Giesselmann; Voglsammer, Behrens
We say: Mainz 05 1-0 Union Berlin
With two teams that are stubborn in their defensive structure, a tight affair appears to be on the cards on Sunday. We are saying that home advantage and fresher legs should play their part to see the hosts edge out their visitors narrowly in this one.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 37.23%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 35.06% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.97%) and 0-2 (6.79%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-0 (10.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.
