Both looking to bounce back from consecutive league defeats, Mainz 05 and Arminia Bielefeld will lock horns at the Mewa Arena on Saturday.
The hosts have dropped to 10th spot in the Bundesliga table after back-to-back losses, while their visitors now sit just two points above the relegation zone.
Match preview
© Reuters
Mainz enjoyed an eye-catching spell at the beginning of February in the Bundesliga, as wins over third-placed Bayer Leverkusen and sixth-placed Hoffenheim were separated by a commendable draw with Freiburg, keeping themselves in the race for continental qualification as a result.
However, their hopes of a top-six finish have since taken a major hit, as Bo Svensson's side were firstly beaten 3-1 away at Union Berlin, with Delano Burgzorg's goal nothing more than a consolation in the 90th minute.
They then looked to have earned a creditable point at home to Borussia Dortmund last time out, as the game remained goalless heading into the final five minutes, only for Axel Witsel to snatch all three points for the hosts with a late close-range finish.
As a result of their consecutive defeats, Die Nullfunfer have quickly dropped to 10th spot in the Bundesliga, and, with sixth-placed Hoffenheim now 10 points ahead, they will feel their outside chance of achieving continental qualification has all but slipped away and will be desperate to make a return to winning ways to climb back towards the top six.
© Reuters
They take on an Arminia Bielefeld side who also suffered a 1-0 defeat to Borussia Dortmund in their most recent outing, as a Marius Wolf goal made the difference last weekend.
That extended a league losing run to three matches, after Frank Kramer's men were previously thrashed 3-0 by Bayer Leverkusen and beaten 1-0 in a crucial clash at the bottom end of the table by Augsburg.
Despite moving away from the relegation zone with a victory over Union Berlin in mid-February, Die Blauen have since been dragged back within an uncomfortable distance of the bottom three as a result of their slump in form.
Having won just five league games all term, with only basement side Greuther Furth recording fewer, Kramer's men now sit just two points above both Stuttgart in the relegation playoff place and Hertha Berlin in the automatic drop zone, meaning they could quickly fall into further danger if they are unable to reverse their fortunes on Saturday.
- L
- W
- D
- W
- L
- L
- D
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Mainz still have a badly hit squad in the aftermath of a COVID outbreak, while Anton Stach will join those ruled out of Saturday's game as the midfielder is suspended.
Niklas Tauer, Delano Burgzorg, Jeremiah St Juste and Finn Dahmen are all set to miss out, with the former injured in the eventual defeat to Borussia Dortmund.
Daniel Brosinski may start in the back three in his absence, although Alexander Hack will also be vying for the spot after returning from a suspension, with only minimal other changes expected given Svensson's relative lack of options.
Arminia quartet Guilherme Ramos, Joakim Nilsson, Nathan de Medina and Gonzalo Castro all recently tested positive for COVID, and it is not yet known whether they will return in time to feature at the weekend.
Furthermore, Cedric Brunner will serve a suspension after being shown a fifth yellow card of the season last time out.
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Hack, Bell, Niakhate; Widmer, Martins, Kohr, Stoger, Lucoqui; Burkardt, Onisiwo
Arminia Bielefeld possible starting lineup:
Moreno; Andrade, Nilsson, Pieper, Medina; Vasiladis, Schopf; Okugawa, Hack, Wimmer; Lasme
We say: Mainz 05 1-0 Arminia Bielefeld
While they have hit a recent dip in form, we see the hosts being too strong for their visitors on Saturday and expect them to return to winning ways against a side devoid of confidence.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 63.81%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Arminia Bielefeld had a probability of 14.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.71%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.24%), while for an Arminia Bielefeld win it was 0-1 (5.5%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.
