Switzerland continue their pursuit of top spot in Group C on Tuesday, as they visit Vilnius to take on Lithuania in World Cup qualifying.
While the Swiss claimed victory at the weekend - closing the gap to leaders Italy down to three points, with this game still in hand - their hosts were delighted to post a first win of the qualification campaign.
Match preview
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Now strong favourites to at least claim the playoff place available for finishing second in their Qatar 2022 qualification group, Switzerland were 2-0 winners over their most probable rivals Northern Ireland on Saturday.
When the visitors had Jamal Lewis controversially sent off for time-wasting before the interval, Murat Yakin's home side assumed complete control, as Steven Zuber and Christian Fassnacht scored in stoppage time at the end of each half to seal an important three points.
The second-placed Swiss are now six points ahead of the Green and White Army in the Group C standings, and after Bulgaria surprisingly lost to Lithuania earlier in the day, they are almost assured of a top-two finish.
In fact, with the European champions busy on Nations League duty this month, Switzerland can draw level on points with their Italian counterparts should they complete an expected win on Tuesday, though their goal difference is still vastly inferior.
With three qualification games left, they can yet catch and even overtake the Azzurri in the race to next year's finals, but are coming from behind due to a pair of goalless draws last month, which could prove costly in the final analysis.
Former Basel boss Yakin - who succeeded the popular Vladimir Petkovic in the summer - will therefore be aware that only victory is acceptable at the LFF Stadium, as his side next tackle Italy in a potentially decisive clash in November.
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First they must take care of business against a Lithuania team which restricted them to a one-goal win in St. Gallen earlier this year, at the start of the qualifying process. Xherdan Shaqiri's early strike split the sides on that occasion, as the Lithuanians soaked up 21 shots on their goal and had just a third of the possession.
Since then, the Rinktine had gone on to lose each and every one of their subsequent Group C fixtures, until a remarkable result at the weekend.
Having welcomed Bulgaria to Vilnius on Saturday, it looked as though a familiar tale of woe would unfold when the visitors were given an excellent opportunity to open the scoring in the 14th minute, as they were awarded a penalty. However, Bulgaria captain Dimitar Iliev then proceeded to strike his effort straight at veteran goalkeeper Ernestas Setkus.
Shortly afterwards, Justas Lasickas gave the hosts a scarcely-deserved lead on the break, and though Kiril Despodov equalised in the second half, Lithuania became the dominant force. After striking the crossbar, they then broke the Bulgarians' resistance with two goals from Fedor Cernych in the final ten minutes.
Even before the current campaign got under way, their record of just one win during qualifying for the last World Cup in neighbouring Russia indicated the improbability of their task in progressing this time around, but at least the team coached by Valdas Ivanauskas can now battle Bulgaria to avoid the ignominy of finishing rock bottom.
Claiming their first points in the group after five consecutive defeats will give heart to Ivanauskas and company ahead of Switzerland's midweek visit, but as they have conceded 14 times in qualifying so far, they will surely fear the attacking potential of the world's 15th-ranked nation.
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Team News
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Though their strength in depth has grown over recent years, Switzerland clearly missed their main men Granit Xhaka and Xherdan Shaqiri last month, and while the former recently suffered a knee injury and remains absent from the current camp, the latter is now back in the fold and started at the weekend.
Focusing on rebuilding his match sharpness at Lyon of late, Shaqiri should again start in the Swiss midfield, with Remo Freuler and Denis Zakaria again the likeliest starters just behind him in Xhaka's absence - though Djibril Sow is another contender to play.
While Borussia Dortmund goalkeeper Gregor Kobel previously pulled out of the squad due to a knee problem, regular stopper Yann Sommer will earn his 70th cap behind a four-man defence helmed by Kobel's BVB colleague Manuel Akanji.
After his goal against Northern Ireland, Christian Fassnacht is pushing Renato Steffen for a start behind Breel Embolo up front, with fellow strikers Ruben Vargas and Haris Seferovic both out injured.
The hosts, meanwhile, still have their most-capped player Saulius Mikoliunas sidelined on Tuesday, due to a tendon injury which has kept him out of action for several weeks.
The former Hearts right-back is therefore replaced by 36-year-old goalkeeper Ernestas Setkus - who helped swing the momentum of Saturday's match with his early penalty save - as the senior citizen of the squad.
Up front, Kazakhstan-based striker Karolis Laukzemis will compete with young Edgaras Dubickas to lead the Lithuanian line - though the pair have scored only two goals for their nation between them. Jagiellonia Bialystok winger Fedor Cernych bagged a brace against Bulgaria and will start in support of the lone front man.
Lithuania possible starting lineup:
Setkus; Baravykas, Satkus, Klimavicius, Vaitkunas; Lasickas, Megelaitis, Slivka, Novikovas; Cernych; Dubickas
Switzerland possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Widmer, Akanji, Elvedi, Rodriguez; Zakaria, Freuler; Zuber, Shaqiri, Fassnacht; Embolo
We say: Lithuania 0-2 Switzerland
After a mixed start gave them a significant deficit to make up, Switzerland can catch Italy on points by putting lowly Lithuania to the sword.
Though confidence will be boosted in the hosts' squad following a rare competitive victory, they are now stepping up in class. Without doubt, the 'Nati' will dominate events in Vilnius and have a variety of goal sources to exploit, even in the absence of some regular faces.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Switzerland win with a probability of 51.82%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Lithuania had a probability of 23.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Switzerland win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.6%) and 0-2 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Lithuania win it was 1-0 (7.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Switzerland would win this match.
