Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajaccio win with a probability of 40.79%. A win for Martigues had a probability of 30.91% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajaccio win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.19%) and 0-2 (7.86%). The likeliest Martigues win was 1-0 (10.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.