Caen
Ligue 2 | Gameweek 28
Mar 18, 2023 at 6pm UK
Stade Michel d'Ornano

Caen
2 - 1
Valenciennes

Brahimi (9'), Mendy (77')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Bonnet (30')
Coverage of the Ligue 2 clash between Caen and Valenciennes.

Form, Standings, Stats

Caen

All competitions
Last Game: Rodez AF 3-2 Caen
Saturday, March 11 at 6pm in Ligue 2

Valenciennes

All competitions
Last Game: Valenciennes 2-2 Bastia
Saturday, March 11 at 6pm in Ligue 2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caen win with a probability of 57.02%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Valenciennes had a probability of 17.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Caen win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.49%) and 2-1 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.55%), while for a Valenciennes win it was 0-1 (7.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Caen would win this match.

Result
CaenDrawValenciennes
57.02% (0.931 0.93)25.77% (-0.246 -0.25)17.2% (-0.686 -0.69)
Both teams to score 39.69% (-0.506 -0.51)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
38.68% (-0.028000000000006 -0.03)61.31% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.77% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)81.23% (0.019999999999996 0.02)
Caen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.31% (0.373 0.37)21.68% (-0.375 -0.38)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.17% (0.567 0.57)54.82% (-0.569 -0.57)
Valenciennes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
50.68% (-0.892 -0.89)49.31% (0.89 0.89)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.82% (-0.638 -0.64)84.17% (0.636 0.64)
Score Analysis
    Caen 57.02%
    Valenciennes 17.2%
    Draw 25.76%
CaenDrawValenciennes
1-0 @ 16.34% (0.2 0.2)
2-0 @ 12.49% (0.29 0.29)
2-1 @ 8.83% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-0 @ 6.37% (0.218 0.22)
3-1 @ 4.5% (0.042000000000001 0.04)
4-0 @ 2.43% (0.11 0.11)
4-1 @ 1.72% (0.035 0.03)
3-2 @ 1.59% (-0.026 -0.03)
Other @ 2.74%
Total : 57.02%
1-1 @ 11.55% (-0.15 -0.15)
0-0 @ 10.69% (0.02 0.02)
2-2 @ 3.12% (-0.086 -0.09)
Other @ 0.4%
Total : 25.76%
0-1 @ 7.56% (-0.187 -0.19)
1-2 @ 4.09% (-0.16 -0.16)
0-2 @ 2.67% (-0.136 -0.14)
1-3 @ 0.96% (-0.063 -0.06)
Other @ 1.92%
Total : 17.2%

Head to Head
Nov 5, 2022 6pm
Valenciennes
1-1
Caen
Cuffaut (39' pen.)
Mendy (23')
Ntim (7')
Mar 15, 2022 6pm
Valenciennes
1-1
Caen
Ntim (24')
Cuffaut (42'), Kaba (43'), Yatabare (59'), Masson (89')
Da Costa (13')
Abdi (59'), Cisse (88')
Oct 2, 2021 6pm
Caen
1-2
Valenciennes
Chahiri (90+2')
Goncalves (73')
Abdi (16' og.), Robail (29')
Debuchy (31'), Robail (81')
Feb 2, 2021 7pm
Caen
1-1
Valenciennes
Bammou (52' pen.)
Deminguet (31'), Mendy (86')
Guel (5')
Pellenard (34'), Spano (51'), Ntim (65')
Sep 26, 2020 6pm
Valenciennes
1-0
Caen
Ntim (10')
D'Almeida (32'), Masson (43'), Spano Rahou (44'), Prior (88')

Deminguet (44')
rhs 2.0


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