| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 18 | Saint-Etienne | 38 | -35 | 32 |
| 19 | Metz | 38 | -34 | 31 |
| 20 | Bordeaux | 38 | -39 | 31 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Marseille | 38 | 25 | 71 |
| 3 | Monaco | 38 | 25 | 69 |
| 4 | Nice | 38 | 16 | 67 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 51.26%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Metz had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.71%) and 1-2 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.01%), while for a Metz win it was 1-0 (7.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Metz | Draw | Monaco |
| 23.4% | 25.33% | 51.26% |
| Both teams to score 49.19% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.63% | 53.36% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.09% | 74.9% |
| Metz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.13% | 37.87% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.36% | 74.64% |
| Monaco Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.17% | 20.83% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.49% | 53.51% |
| Score Analysis |
| Metz | Draw | Monaco |
| 1-0 @ 7.66% 2-1 @ 5.83% 2-0 @ 3.72% 3-1 @ 1.89% 3-2 @ 1.48% 3-0 @ 1.2% Other @ 1.61% Total : 23.4% | 1-1 @ 12.01% 0-0 @ 7.89% 2-2 @ 4.58% Other @ 0.85% Total : 25.33% | 0-1 @ 12.37% 0-2 @ 9.71% 1-2 @ 9.43% 0-3 @ 5.08% 1-3 @ 4.93% 2-3 @ 2.39% 0-4 @ 1.99% 1-4 @ 1.93% 2-4 @ 0.94% Other @ 2.5% Total : 51.26% |