Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 51.26%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Metz had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.71%) and 1-2 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.01%), while for a Metz win it was 1-0 (7.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.