Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 57.91%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Clermont had a probability of 18.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.82%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.02%), while for a Clermont win it was 0-1 (6.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.