Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 4

Aug 26, 2022 at 8pm UK

Stade Francois Coty

Ajaccio
1 - 3
Lille

Bayala (84')
Mangani (71'), Gonzalez (73'), Bayala (86')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Yazici (17'), Bamba (43'), Djalo (67')
Diakite (51'), Zhegrova (57')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Ligue 1 clash between Ajaccio and Lille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ajaccio

Last Six:

Last Game: Rennes 2-1 Ajaccio
Sunday, August 21 at 4.05pm in Ligue 1

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
17	Angers	3	-2	2
18	Ajaccio	3	-2	1
19	Reims	3	-5	1

Lille

Last Six:

Last Game: Lille 1-7 PSG
Sunday, August 21 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
11	Monaco	3	-2	4
12	Lille	3	-3	4
13	Montpellier HSC	3	-3	3

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 35.85%. A win for Ajaccio had a probability of 32.67% and a draw had a probability of 31.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.18%) and 1-2 (6.73%). The likeliest Ajaccio win was 1-0 (13.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.

Result
Ajaccio	Draw	Lille
32.67% ( -0.13)	31.48% ( -0.06)	35.85% ( 0.18)

Both teams to score 38.35% (

0.12)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

30.51% (

0.14)

69.49% (

-0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

13.09% (

0.09)

86.91% (

-0.09)

Ajaccio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.8% (

-0.01)

39.2% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.09% (

-0.01)

75.91% (

0.01)

Lille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.07% (

0.21)

36.93% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.29% (

0.21)

73.72% (

-0.21)

Score Analysis

Ajaccio 32.67%

Lille 35.85%

Draw 31.47%

Ajaccio	Draw	Lille
1-0 @ 13.55% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 6.35% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 6.32% ( -0) 3-0 @ 1.98% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 1.97% ( -0) 3-2 @ 0.98% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.51% Total : 32.67%	0-0 @ 14.47% ( -0.08) 1-1 @ 13.5% 2-2 @ 3.15% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.35% Total : 31.47%	0-1 @ 14.42% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 7.18% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 6.73% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 2.39% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.85% Total : 35.85%