Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Necaxa win with a probability of 41.74%. A win for Mazatlan had a probability of 33.13% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Necaxa win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.87%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Mazatlan win was 0-1 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.84%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Necaxa would win this match.