Scunthorpe United head to Brisbane Road to face Leyton Orient on Friday knowing that they must win their remaining five matches to have a shot at staying in League Two beyond this campaign.
The O's ended their road trip with a disappointing 1-0 defeat at Sutton United, while Scunthorpe are dead last with 24 points, having lost six consecutive encounters domestically.
Match preview
The opening 25 minutes against Sutton looked like a match of men versus boys, according to Orient manager Richie Wellens, as his side failed to score for the second time in three games.
It was a different story in the second half as Leyton seemed to control the tempo, though they are still lacking that physicality on defence, while their decision-making has also let them down lately.
They will be happy to know that two of their next three matches will take place in East London, where this lot have won back-to-back fixtures, outscoring their opponents by a combined tally of 5-1.
Showing more dynamic play with sharper body positions in those pockets of space are two keys that Wellens is asking from his group for their remaining five fixtures as they sit in 14th place.
They are in a reasonably comfortable position, 12 points above the relegation zone, thanks to a splendid month of March in which they picked up points in seven of their eight domestic encounters.
That strong run will likely be enough to keep them in the fourth tier next season, though Wellens would like to see his group play more aggressively down the stretch of this campaign.
A season ago, Scunthorpe United escaped relegation by the skin of their teeth, finishing three points above the relegation zone, but with the current campaign winding down, it will take something miraculous for history to repeat itself in 2021-22.
Not only do they have to win their remaining games, but with Stevenage, Oldham Athletic and Barrow all 12 points adrift of them at the moment, the Iron also need two of those sides to lose all of their remaining encounters to avoid dropping down into the National League.
Scunthorpe have not won a domestic encounter since a 1-0 victory over Walsall back on February 8, and they have not found the back of the net in their last three games.
Scoring a mere 26 goals while conceding 76 will not get you far in this league, as this group have been chasing their share of games throughout the season, including last weekend when they were down 3-0 to Mansfield Town heading into the interval.
Keith Hill seems to be at a loss for words on how to motivate his group, who have made it far too easy for opposing sides to penetrate their defensive wall, allowing 28 efforts on target over their previous four fixtures, 13 of which found the back of the net.
They are still searching for that elusive road victory in 2022, though Hill saw them put forth perhaps their best effort of the year away from home in their last match, holding league leaders Forest Green scoreless until the 75th-minute when a Dan Sweeney strike saw them lose 1-0 at the beginning of April.
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Team News
Harry Smith leads Leyton with 13 goals this season, one more than teammate Aaron Drinan, with the Irishman tallying their only strike in a 1-1 draw versus Scunthorpe last November.
Dan Moss and Jayden Sweeney each made a rare start in their match last weekend, as Harry Smith, Adam Thompson and Connor Wood were sidelined, whilst Theo Archibald and Paul Smyth played alongside Drinan upfront and Ruel Sotiriou began that encounter on the substitutes bench.
Goalkeeper Lawrence Vigouroux has started every match for this team since Rhys Byrne replaced him in their second round shootout victory over MK Dons in 2021, and the Chilean picked up his 100th cap for the O's last Saturday.
Hill made three changes to the Scunthorpe starting 11 against Mansfield, with Finley Shrimpton, Anthony Grant and Sam Burns drawing into the lineup in place of Harvey Cribb, Tyrese Sinclair and Alfie Beestin.
Scoring goals has been challenging for this team, who let Myles Hippolyte sign with Stockport County on a free transfer back in January, despite him being the team's top goalscorer at the time.
Jake Scrimshaw had their only goal, which earned them a point in their last match against Leyton Orient at Glanford Park, while Joe Nuttall has tallied the previous two strikes for this team, though they were both in losing efforts versus Salford City (5-1) and Colchester (3-1).
Leyton Orient possible starting lineup:
Vigouroux; Sweeney, Ogie, Beckles, Thompson; Young, Kyprianou, Pratley; Smyth, Drinan, Sotiriou
Scunthorpe United possible starting lineup:
Watson; O'Malley, Rowe, Gallimore, Delaney; Feeney, Shrimpton, Hackney; Grant, Lewis; Nuttall
We say: Leyton Orient 3-0 Scunthorpe United
Scunthorpe have been at their best against the teams near the top of the table, but they still lack consistency on the back end, and that is what will likely see them drop down into the National League next season.
Wallens has asked his side to produce more quality while making all of their possession count, and given how fragile the Iron have been defensively in this campaign, you have to think that Leyton will be able to bury a few of their chances on Friday.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leyton Orient win with a probability of 70.59%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Scunthorpe United had a probability of 10.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leyton Orient win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.52%) and 3-0 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.86%), while for a Scunthorpe United win it was 0-1 (4.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-0 win for Leyton Orient in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Leyton Orient.
