An all-Premier League FA Cup third-round tie takes place at the King Power Stadium on Saturday afternoon, as defending champions Leicester City play host to Watford.
The Foxes begin the long and arduous defence of their crown on home soil, while the Hornets have bowed out in the third round two seasons in a row.
Match preview
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As if their historic 2015-16 Premier League title win was not enough, Leicester once again defied the odds to lift the FA Cup in the 2020-21 season, with Youri Tielemans's thunderbolt of an effort sinking Chelsea in front of a depleted Wembley crowd.
The images of Aiyawatt Srivaddhanaprabha joining the celebrations on the field warmed the hearts of football fans across the globe in what was a fitting tribute to his late father, but the quest for back-to-back FA Cup titles begins now.
Aiming to follow in the footsteps of Arsenal's 2014 and 2015 winners, Leicester are well-placed to kick off their FA Cup journey on the right foot, as Brendan Rodgers's COVID-hit squad came up trumps against a near full-strength Liverpool in their final game of 2021 thanks to Ademola Lookman's strike.
The Foxes were due to open 2022 with a fixture against Norwich City before the game was called off due to the Canaries' coronavirus cluster, and that encounter would have certainly helped them build on their measly tally of two wins from their last seven in all competitions.
However, Leicester are enjoying a four-game winning run at home across all tournaments - averaging three goals per game in that hot streak - but they will be wary of another early exit following Newport County's famous third-round win in 2018-19.
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Claudio Ranieri's stint at Chelsea did not yield an FA Cup victory, and given the form his Watford side are currently in, it will be a tall order for the Hornets to produce the shock of all shocks in the 2021-22 edition.
Watford memorably made it all the way to the final in the 2018-19 season before being comfortably swept aside by Manchester City, and since then they have suffered back-to-back third-round exits to Tranmere Rovers and Manchester United.
December was a truly forgettable month for Watford, who lost all five of their Premier League games in that month to drop ever closer to danger, and Ranieri may prioritise the relegation scrap over a highly unlikely shot at silverware.
Watford travel to an injury-hit Leicester having lost their last three away games and are hardly in the healthiest shape themselves, but stranger things have happened in this competition notorious for giant killings season after season.
Leicester put four past Watford in a 4-2 victory when the sides met in the Premier League back in November, and while the Hornets tend to fare well in this fixture at Vicarage Road, they have lost their last six games versus the FA Cup holders at the King Power.
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Team News
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Leicester have lost four players to Africa Cup of Nations duty ahead of this game, with Wilfred Ndidi, Nampalys Mendy, Kelechi Iheanacho and Daniel Amartey all competing at the tournament.
Ryan Bertrand, James Justin, Ricardo Pereira, Jamie Vardy, Wesley Fofana, Jonny Evans and Caglar Soyuncu will all be out for a little while longer, while Patson Daka is also unlikely to make the cut here, and to add to Rodgers's woes, Boubakary Soumare and Luke Thomas are both unavailable.
There was optimism over the fitness of James Maddison and Harvey Barnes, but both players are set to miss out again, and Rodgers will likely be forced to throw 17-year-old Ben Nelson into the heart of the defence.
Meanwhile, Watford's ranks have also been depleted by AFCON, with William Troost-Ekong, Adam Masina, Imran Louza and Ismaila Sarr - despite a row between Senegal and the Hornets - representing their various nations.
Star striker Emmanuel Dennis has remained in England after Nigeria accused Watford of "baring their fangs" over his rejected AFCON release, but Peter Etebo, Christian Kabasele, Kwadwo Baah, Nicolas N'Koulou, Danny Rose and Kiko Femenia are all injury concerns, while Dennis has now picked up a knock.
Ben Foster is thought to have a good chance of recovering from a groin strain in time for this match, but Daniel Bachmann was the star of the show against Tottenham Hotspur and is unlikely to lose his place.
Leicester City possible starting lineup:
Ward; Daley-Campbell, Vestergaard, Nelson, Castagne; Tielemans, Choudhury; Albrighton, Dewsbury-Hall, Lookman; Perez
Watford possible starting lineup:
Bachmann; Ngakia, Sierralta, Cathcart, Morris; Kucka, Sissoko, Cleverley; Hernandez, King, Sema
We say: Leicester City 2-0 Watford
Both sides are dealing with absentees in the double figures and may feel that they have bigger fish to fry regarding the Premier League, but Leicester will not turn their noses up at another memorable cup run.
Watford are not exactly renowned for their performances on the King Power turf and ended 2021 in the worst way possible, so we expect a comfortable route into round four for the defending champions.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leicester City win with a probability of 50.73%. A win for Watford had a probability of 26.21% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leicester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.59%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Watford win was 1-2 (6.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.64%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leicester City would win this match.
