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Leicester logo
Europa League | Group Stage
Nov 4, 2021 at 8pm UK
King Power Stadium

Leicester
1 - 1
Spartak Moscow

Amartey (58')
Tielemans (67')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Moses (51')
Sobolev (59'), Moses (74')

Preview: Leicester City vs. Spartak Moscow - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Leicester City and Spartak Moscow, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

After a spectacular first encounter in Russia last month, Leicester City and Europa League rivals Spartak Moscow reconvene at the King Power Stadium on Thursday.

With the sides split by just a point in the finely-poised Group C standings - the Foxes hold that slim advantage - another entertaining affair could be in store between the bottom two in the table.


Match preview

Leicester City's Patson Daka with the matchball after a hat trick at the end of the match against Spartak Moscow on October 20, 2021© Reuters

Though Leicester's European ambitions seemed to lie ruined as the end of the first half approached in Moscow, one man remained undeterred; almost single-handedly clawing the Premier League club back into contention for a place in the knockout stages.

With the Foxes 2-0 down in the wake of Jordan Larsson's 44th-minute goal a fortnight ago, former Salzburg striker Patson Daka proceeded to take matters into his own hands and struck the net four times from the same number of shots on target, and the game ultimately finished 4-3 to the visitors.

Daka's spectacular contribution followed another spirited comeback for Leicester at Manchester United just days earlier, meaning maximum points - and eight goals - from two important fixtures. All of which helped build momentum for the side managed by Brendan Rodgers, as they subsequently went on to win at Brentford, before beating Brighton in the EFL Cup.

Having picked up just a point from their first two Europa League matches, Leicester also remain in the running in a competitive group also featuring Polish champions Legia Warsaw and Serie A leaders Napoli.

Despite their loss at home to Arsenal on Saturday - which sees them sit 10th in the Premier League table - the Midlands side will approach Thursday's game with a strong home record behind them since their competition debut last season. They came out on top in all three home games without conceding a goal in 2020, and in this term's competition they were only held by a late Napoli fightback.

Spartak Moscow coach Rui Vitoria reacts on September 30, 2021© Reuters

Their spectacular implosion at the Otkrytie Arena last time they met Leicester heralded a horrible week ahead for Spartak, as after they sank to the bottom of Group C, the Muscovites went on to suffer their worst-ever league defeat.

An abject 7-1 loss to Zenit St Petersburg brought despair for head coach Rui Vitoria, who saw his side go in four goals behind at the break, and ultimately end up with only a second-half Quincy Promes goal as some form of consolation on the bleakest of nights at the Krestovsky Stadium.

Though they since secured a 1-1 draw with Rostov - in which two points slipped away in the final seconds due to their visitors' 95th-minute equaliser - the damage has been done to Spartak's morale, and a reprisal of their contest with Leicester could arguably not come at a worse time.

It could all have been so different for Vitoria's side, as they had previously sunk Napoli at Stadio Maradona, and they still remain the only team to have beaten the Azzurri in any competition so far this season.

However, now the onus is on Spartak to commit to attack, even when they are fully aware of the defensive deficiencies which have led to them languishing in 9th place in the Russian Premier League - already 11 points adrift of leaders Zenit with 13 games played.

Leicester City Europa League form:
  • D
  • L
  • W

Leicester City form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L

Spartak Moscow Europa League form:
  • L
  • W
  • L

Spartak Moscow form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • D



Team News

Leicester City's Wilfred Ndidi in action with Manchester City's Ferran Torres on September 11, 2021© Reuters

An illness which has swept through the Leicester camp in recent days seems set to keep both Harvey Barnes and James Maddison out of the squad.

However, Wilfred Ndidi could make his first start in over a month, having missed City's last seven matches due to a hamstring injury. The Nigeria midfielder was back on the bench during the loss to Arsenal and would help shore up a side which has shipped goals at a rate of nearly two per game since he was sidelined.

Luke Thomas replaced the injured Ricardo Pereira at wing-back last weekend, and may continue there while the ex-Porto defender takes cautious steps in his recovery from a hamstring problem. Meanwhile, Ayoze Perez is expected to return from a mild illness in time to face Spartak, so could start as part of a front three for the Foxes.

Star striker Jamie Vardy has recently been troubled by a knee issue, so Patson Daka should resume his battle with a visiting defence that struggles to cope with his penalty-box prowess.

Spartak boss Rui Vitoria must consider the twin aims of picking up an essential three points with combating Leicester's potentially electric attacking play. To that end, he may opt for a 3-5-2 formation rather than the bolder 3-4-2-1 which failed to get the job done when the clubs last met.

That could involve Jordan Larsson dropping out of the side, as Aleksandr Sobolev and Quincy Promes would most likely start up front in the continued absence of Argentinian striker Ezequiel Ponce.

Georgi Melkadze and centre-back Pavel Maslov are set to sit out the trip to England through injury, but Maximiliano Caufriez can return to the back three after serving a suspension in the reverse fixture.

Leicester City possible starting lineup:
Schmeichel; Amartey, Soyuncu, Vestergaard; Castagne, Ndidi, Tielemans, Thomas; Perez; Iheanacho, Daka

Spartak Moscow possible starting lineup:
Maksimenko; Dzhikiya, Gigot, Caufriez; Moses, Zobnin, Bakaev, Litvinov, Ayrton; Promes, Sobolev


SM words green background

We say: Leicester City 3-1 Spartak Moscow

As this group reaches the stage where points become crucial, a win for Leicester could put them within touching distance of the last 16, while Spartak would almost certainly see their chances ended with a defeat.

That is the likeliest outcome on Thursday evening, as the Foxes' forward options can make mincemeat of the Muscovites if anywhere near top form.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



ID:469001:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect11969:
Written by
Jonathan O'Shea

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leicester City win with a probability of 47.11%. A win for Spartak Moscow had a probability of 32.4% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leicester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.82%) and 3-2 (5.2%). The likeliest Spartak Moscow win was 1-2 (6.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Leicester vs Spartak Moscow

Leicester City
84.0%
Draw
10.1%
Spartak Moscow
5.9%
169
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Leicester City's Patson Daka with the matchball after a hat trick at the end of the match against Spartak Moscow on October 20, 2021
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