Lecce can climb back out of the Serie A relegation zone on Wednesday evening should they overcome mid-table Fiorentina at Stadio Via del Mare.
The Giallorossi have revived their campaign with a couple of positive results and will be looking to keep that momentum going against a Fiorentina side with little to play for.
Match preview
After spending more than four months in the bottom three, Lecce can finally drag themselves above the dotted line - even if just for 24 hours - with victory in midweek.
Fabio Liverani's stunned Lazio with a 2-1 win last week and then took a point off Cagliari in Sunday's stalemate to move back to within a point of Genoa.
Lecce did manage to move up to 17th temporarily last week, only for Genoa to pick up a first win in six matches and swap places with the Giallorossi.
The target for Liverani's men now, with just six games of the campaign to go, is to beat Fiorentina and hope that Genoa fail to take anything off Torino on Thursday.
Fiorentina may be seven points better off in the table, but La Viola have struggled for victories in the second half of the season - just two in their last 12 league matches.
© Reuters
Giuseppe Iachini's side have been bouncing around in mid-table with little to play for on the face of it, although defeat on Wednesday evening could change that.
Following back-to-back home draws against Cagliari and Hellas Verona, a failure to take anything from their trip to Via del Mare may leave them only three points clear of the drop.
Fiorentina beat Parma in their most recent away match, but they have not won back-to-back games on their travels since April 2018.
Scoring goals has been a serious issue for Iachini's side since the restart, netting just six times in their first six games back - only SPAL (three) have scored fewer.
That slump has been nothing to worry about so far, but this fixture has now taken on added significance for the visitors - one they cannot lose if they are to avoid being dragged into a relegation scrap.
Lecce's Serie A form: LLLLWD
Fiorentina's Serie A form: DLLWDD
Team News
© Reuters
Lecce welcomed Panagiotis Tachtsidis back from suspension against Cagliari but he remained on the bench for the full 90 minutes.
Diego Farias is pushing for inclusion up top, having once again been named among the subs at the weekend, and he boasts four goal involvements in six games against Fiorentina.
As for Fiorentina, Federico Chiesa was hauled off at half time against Cagliari and was benched for the draw with Verona.
The highly-rated winger should return for the clash with Lecce, though, and Christian Kouame will be hoping to retain his place up top after making his debut last week.
Lecce possible starting lineup:
Gabriel; Donati, Lucioni, Paz, Calderoni; Mancosu, Petriccione, Barak; Saponara; Farias, Babacar
Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
Dragowski; Milenkovic, Ceccherini, Caceres; Venuti, Pulgar, Castrovilli, Lirola; Chiesa, Kouame, Ribery
We say: Lecce 1-1 Fiorentina
Fiorentina have drawn more games than any other side in Serie A this season, including back-to-back stalemates ahead of this fixture. Lecce have given themselves hope of survival in recent weeks and we expect this one to finish all square.
Daniel Lewis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 41.87%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 33.88% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.98%) and 0-2 (6.33%). The likeliest Lecce win was 2-1 (7.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.
