Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 55.29%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 22.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.59%) and 2-0 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.56%), while for a Lokomotiv Moscow win it was 1-2 (5.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.