Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtar Donetsk win with a probability of 60.3%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Karpaty Lviv had a probability of 17.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtar Donetsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.08%) and 2-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.57%), while for a Karpaty Lviv win it was 0-1 (5.68%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shakhtar Donetsk would win this match.