Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtar Donetsk win with a probability of 39.73%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 35.63% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtar Donetsk win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.11%) and 2-0 (6.11%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 1-2 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.