Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peterborough United win with a probability of 49.33%. A win for Barnsley had a probability of 29.39% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Peterborough United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.08%) and 2-0 (5.71%). The likeliest Barnsley win was 1-2 (6.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Barnsley would win this match.