Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cheltenham Town win with a probability of 39.8%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 35.82% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cheltenham Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.81%) and 0-2 (5.99%). The likeliest Newport County win was 2-1 (8.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Cheltenham Town in this match.