Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenix win with a probability of 43.83%. A draw had a probability of 30% and a win for Rampla Juniors had a probability of 26.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenix win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.24%) and 2-1 (7.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.2%), while for a Rampla Juniors win it was 0-1 (11.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fenix in this match.