Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 40.86%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 32.62% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.62%) and 0-2 (7.23%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 (9.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.