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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Salford City win with a probability of 50.09%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 24.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Salford City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.46%) and 0-2 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.95%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 1-0 (7.55%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
Result | ||
Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Salford City |
24.77% ( -0.37) | 25.13% ( -0.06) | 50.09% ( 0.42) |
Both teams to score 51.22% ( -0.17) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.6% ( -0.05) | 51.4% ( 0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.78% ( -0.05) | 73.21% ( 0.05) |
Crewe Alexandra Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.45% ( -0.35) | 35.54% ( 0.35) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.69% ( -0.36) | 72.31% ( 0.36) |
Salford City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.47% ( 0.16) | 20.53% ( -0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.96% ( 0.25) | 53.03% ( -0.25) |
Score Analysis |
Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Salford City |
1-0 @ 7.55% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 6.18% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 3.9% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 2.13% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.98% Total : 24.77% | 1-1 @ 11.95% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 7.3% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.89% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.99% Total : 25.13% | 0-1 @ 11.55% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 9.46% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 9.15% ( 0.11) 1-3 @ 4.99% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 4.83% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 2.58% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.98% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.91% ( 0.04) 2-4 @ 1.02% ( 0) Other @ 2.62% Total : 50.09% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 39 | 20 | 13 | 6 | 79 | 37 | 42 | 73 |
2 | Stockport CountyStockport | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 75 | 40 | 35 | 71 |
3 | Wrexham | 39 | 20 | 10 | 9 | 70 | 48 | 22 | 70 |
4 | MK Dons | 40 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 63 | 54 | 9 | 67 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 39 | 18 | 11 | 10 | 67 | 55 | 12 | 65 |
6 | BarrowBarrow | 38 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 53 | 40 | 13 | 64 |
7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 38 | 18 | 5 | 15 | 57 | 54 | 3 | 59 |
8 | Gillingham | 40 | 17 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 59 |
9 | AFC Wimbledon | 40 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 58 |
10 | Walsall | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 57 | 52 | 5 | 56 |
11 | Newport CountyNewport | 39 | 16 | 7 | 16 | 58 | 59 | -1 | 55 |
12 | Morecambe | 39 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 59 | 68 | -9 | 54 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 39 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 54 |
14 | Notts County | 39 | 15 | 6 | 18 | 76 | 74 | 2 | 51 |
15 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 40 | 15 | 5 | 20 | 59 | 57 | 2 | 50 |
16 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 39 | 14 | 8 | 17 | 52 | 57 | -5 | 50 |
17 | Bradford CityBradford | 39 | 13 | 11 | 15 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 50 |
18 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 51 | 62 | -11 | 49 |
19 | Salford City | 40 | 12 | 11 | 17 | 60 | 73 | -13 | 47 |
20 | Swindon TownSwindon | 39 | 11 | 11 | 17 | 65 | 70 | -5 | 44 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 38 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 49 | 65 | -16 | 39 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 47 | 66 | -19 | 34 |
23 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 40 | 7 | 12 | 21 | 45 | 71 | -26 | 33 |
24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 39 | 8 | 9 | 22 | 38 | 65 | -27 | 33 |
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