Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Galway United win with a probability of 37.74%. A win for Dundalk had a probability of 32.44% and a draw had a probability of 29.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Galway United win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.45%) and 0-2 (7.43%). The likeliest Dundalk win was 1-0 (12.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Galway United would win this match.