Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a LDU Quito win with a probability of 51.02%. A draw had a probability of 25.02% and a win for Mirassol had a probability of 23.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a LDU Quito win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.71%) and 2-0 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.81%) , while for a Mirassol win it was 0-1 (7.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.