Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kashiwa Reysol win with a probability of 38.76%. A win for Avispa Fukuoka had a probability of 32.87% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kashiwa Reysol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Avispa Fukuoka win was 0-1 (10.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.