Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jubilo Iwata win with a probability of 42.35%. A win for Shonan Bellmare had a probability of 32.06% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jubilo Iwata win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.17%). The likeliest Shonan Bellmare win was 0-1 (8.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jubilo Iwata would win this match.