Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tokyo Verdy win with a probability of 37.96%. A win for Jubilo Iwata had a probability of 35.48% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tokyo Verdy win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.28%) and 2-0 (6.58%). The likeliest Jubilo Iwata win was 0-1 (9.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tokyo Verdy would win this match.