Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sagan Tosu win with a probability of 36.35%. A win for Jubilo Iwata had a probability of 35.97% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sagan Tosu win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.86%) and 0-2 (6.58%). The likeliest Jubilo Iwata win was 1-0 (10.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.