Preview: Italy vs Norway - prediction, team news, lineups

Having all but qualified for a first World Cup in 28 years, Norway will complete their spectacular Group I campaign by visiting four-time world champions Italy on Sunday evening.

While the Norwegians merely need to avoid a huge defeat to seal the deal at San Siro, the Azzurri are already preparing themselves for another assault on the playoffs.

Match preview

Assured of a top-two finish in Group I, there was little jeopardy coming into this month's final slate of fixtures, as Italy's fate was virtually confirmed with two rounds remaining.

Having seen off a brief challenge by Israel, the Azzurri have continued their recovery from losing 3-0 in Oslo on the opening matchday, which prompted former coach Luciano Spalletti to depart.

Under new boss Gennaro Gattuso - a World Cup winner in 2006 - Italy have scored freely across six subsequent victories, although they left it late to beat Moldova 2-0 on Thursday.

Gattuso's side fought hard to find a goal in Chisinau, racking up multiple attempts without any luck, before late headers from Gianluca Mancini and Francesco Pio Esposito spared their blushes.

Mathematically, at least, that kept them in the hunt for automatic qualification, but they would need a pure football miracle to overhaul Norway this weekend. 

Italy are three points behind and their visitors have a significant advantage in terms of goal difference, so only a nine-goal winning margin can turn things around.

More realistically, gaining revenge for being outclassed in the reverse fixture would boost La Nazionale's morale, ahead of another stressful venture into the playoffs.

© Iconsport

While the Italians have failed to reach successive World Cups due to faltering along that back-door route, Norway's wait for qualification stretches back almost three decades.  

That is set to formally end on Sunday, as the top scorers in European qualifying - with 33 goals, including 14 for Erling Haaland - are basically bound for North America.

Barring a total meltdown in Milan, a first World Cup finals since 1998 awaits, thanks to their ruthless dismissal of every Group I opponent.

Having kicked off with that stunning 3-0 defeat of the Azzurri in June, Norway have accrued a maximum 21 points so far, and they just need to score once more to record the best UEFA qualifying goal tally this century.

Only last month's friendly draw with New Zealand halted the Landslaget's streak of nine straight wins across all competitions, which included an 11-1 victory over Moldova and a 5-0 thumping of Israel.

Stale Solbakken's men edged closer to the finish line on Thursday, when second-half braces from Haaland and Alexander Sorloth saw off Estonia, leaving them on the verge of a first World Cup appearance in a generation.

Italy World Cup Qualifying - Europe form:

W W W W W W

Norway World Cup Qualifying - Europe form:

W W W W W W

Norway form (all competitions):

W W W W D W

Team News

© Imago

With eyes firmly fixed on ending Italy's playoff jinx, Gattuso has already admitted that avoiding suspensions will affect his team selection on Sunday.

Key midfielder Sandro Tonali is therefore set to miss out on playing at his old home ground San Siro, due to the risk of being banned for an upcoming semi-final.

The hosts are also without forwards Moise Kean and Niccolo Cambiaghi through injury, and Arsenal's Riccardo Calafiori is still nursing a hip problem, but Nicolo Barella may replace Tonali after serving a one-match ban against Moldova. 

Continuing his slow start to the season, Gianluca Scamacca failed to find the net on Thursday, so Mateo Retegui - who has five goals and four assists in Group I - could return; captain and first-choice goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma should be back between the posts.

While Retegui's record is relatively impressive, Haaland only needs two more goals to match Robert Lewandowski's all-time benchmark of 16 in UEFA qualifying.

The Manchester City star should again partner Sorloth in Norway's potent attack, probably supported from either flank by clubmate Oscar Bobb and RB Leipzig's Antonio Nusa.

The visitors will be without Martin Odegaard - at least on the pitch - as he has been ruled out by a knee injury; albeit their captain is set to support his teammates in Milan. 

At the back, Solbakken recalled Genoa defender Leo Ostigard, who missed last month's camp with a broken rib, but Bologna's Torbjorn Heggem may be preferred to partner Kristoffer Ajer.

Italy possible starting lineup:

Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni; Politano, Barella, Locatelli, Cristante, Dimarco; Retegui, Esposito

Norway possible starting lineup:

Nyland; Ryerson, Heggem, Ajer, Bjorkan; Bobb, Berg, Berge, Nusa; Sorloth, Haaland

We say: Italy 2-2 Norway 

Since Gattuso's arrival, Italy have been hitting the net regularly - but not quite at Norway's incredible pace.

With the pressure off, both sides can play out an open final fixture, as Norwegian fans celebrate their return to the global stage.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.