Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hapoel Tel Aviv win with a probability of 45.68%. A win for Maccabi Tel Aviv had a probability of 29.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hapoel Tel Aviv win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.87%) and 0-2 (7.01%). The likeliest Maccabi Tel Aviv win was 2-1 (7.32%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.