Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hapoel Tel Aviv win with a probability of 63.34%. A draw had a probability of 21.27% and a win for Hapoel Jerusalem had a probability of 15.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hapoel Tel Aviv win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.43%) and 2-1 (11.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.13%) , while for a Hapoel Jerusalem win it was 0-1 (5.41%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.