Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hapoel Petah Tikva win with a probability of 38.09%. A win for Hapoel Jerusalem had a probability of 34.51% and a draw had a probability of 27.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hapoel Petah Tikva win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.66%) and 0-2 (5.78%). The likeliest Hapoel Jerusalem win was 1-0 (8.73%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.