Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maccabi Tel Aviv win with a probability of 67%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Hapoel Jerusalem had a probability of 12.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maccabi Tel Aviv win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.96%) and 2-1 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.68%), while for a Hapoel Jerusalem win it was 0-1 (5.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Maccabi Tel Aviv would win this match.