Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hapoel Jerusalem win with a probability of 46.35%. A draw had a probability of 28.3% and a win for Hapoel Hadera had a probability of 25.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hapoel Jerusalem win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.51%) and 2-1 (8.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.91%), while for a Hapoel Hadera win it was 0-1 (9.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.