Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Solomon Islands win with a probability of 52.52%. A win for Fiji had a probability of 24.04% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Solomon Islands win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.75%) and 2-0 (8.71%). The likeliest Fiji win was 0-1 (6.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Solomon Islands would win this match.