Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Myanmar win with a probability of 75.53%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for Nepal had a probability of 8.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Myanmar win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.45%) and 3-0 (10.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.56%), while for a Nepal win it was 0-1 (3.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Myanmar would win this match.