Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sri Lanka win with a probability of 50.06%. A win for Burnei had a probability of 27.7% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sri Lanka win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.11%) and 0-2 (6.8%). The likeliest Burnei win was 2-1 (6.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.