Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sri Lanka win with a probability of 37.8%. A win for Yemen had a probability of 36.43% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sri Lanka win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.36%) and 0-2 (6.25%). The likeliest Yemen win was 1-0 (8.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.